Cold?

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Re: Cold?

Post Number:#26  Postby Stan » Thu Dec 14, 2017 5:15 pm

btw- Hayward if those weather sites are accurate hit 73F. The old record was only 67f- set in 2016. The oldest record of 64f had held since 1976. So,back to back warm Dec 14ths is a sign...
It was strange to feel a warm breeze too at a time of the year that's usually money cold.
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Re: Cold?

Post Number:#27  Postby Stan » Sat Dec 16, 2017 4:20 pm

We dropped to 14% humidity today. In winter!
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Re: Cold?

Post Number:#28  Postby Spination » Sat Dec 16, 2017 5:22 pm

Well, this AM it was 50 F, thanks to a change in the weather pattern that was predicted, and that's pretty much 20 F more in one day than we just had for 7 days straight. Much welcome relief from our first extended string of cold nights.
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Re: Cold?

Post Number:#29  Postby Stan » Sat Dec 16, 2017 7:36 pm

I might do some transplanting soon. Its seems like spring- early March. The ground is just right- not hard or mushy.
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Re: Cold?

Post Number:#30  Postby Spination » Sat Dec 16, 2017 9:07 pm

LOL Stan. We haven't even hit the solstice yet. The cold 7 days just passed was a prelude. There's plenty more to come...
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Re: Cold?

Post Number:#31  Postby Stone Jaguar » Sat Dec 16, 2017 9:33 pm

Spination wrote:LOL Stan. We haven't even hit the solstice yet. The cold 7 days just passed was a prelude. There's plenty more to come...


If the past week was a prelude of what’s to come, “oh, joy”.

Balmy down here...no 30 handles prognosticated as overnight lows until mid next week.
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Re: Cold?

Post Number:#32  Postby Spination » Sun Dec 17, 2017 10:04 am

Maybe I didn't use the right word. I think of a prelude as an introduction, or in the sense that I meant it - a harbinger.

While I realize while we had 7 days of 30 to 32 F AMs in a row, which translated further south surrounding the Bay can be up to 10 degrees warmer... the thing is, winter doesn't even officially start until 12/21, surrounding and after the 3 shortest days of the year here in the northern hemisphere.

Last year, which nevermind the record rainfall, was a brutal year for the outdoor vegetation here (when the lemon tree gets massacred, it's plenty bad) - given what I thought at the time was a severe number of freeze or colder days (20 of 'em - 3 weeks worth!), but also equally severe by being spread out over an unusual length of time 12/16 - 3/1 (2 1/2 months!). That's a piece of cake compared to where I was born, but that's just not even close to normal around here. After all, this is California - not the northeast.

I'm thinking that what seemed like an incredible number of freeze days for these here parts last year is going to get blown out of the water this time around. We, north of you, have already had 1/2 the number of freeze days this season compared to the last one, and that's before it even started last year!

The best thing about what has come so far, is that there was a threshold not really dipped below appreciably - like into the 20s. So, excepting two tabletop aloes accidentally left out overnight a few days ago, which immediately assumed the coloring of melting aloe @ 30 for several hours (don't know yet if they're going to rot or not) - I've had no damage so far. Also, it was dry, another advantage. Wet, then cold...is way worse than dry, then cold.

Anyway, I have no sense of "oh joy". If we're already 1/2 way into the total number of freeze days (overnights I mean) this year before it even started last year, and before winter has officially started - logic dictates (my logic anyway - and I'd love to be wrong!) that we're really in for it this time around. The best I am hoping for is we don't crack last year's lows. 7 of those 20 overnights were below 30, and the two lowest were 26 and 27.
If we can remain above those, my feeling is that damage-wise, it shouldn't be worse than last time around. Well, unless we have some of those days I've rarely seen in years past, when the ice doesn't even melt during the day...
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Re: Cold?

Post Number:#33  Postby Stan » Sun Dec 17, 2017 10:40 am

Its 60f at 9:30 am ,and in December in the bay area that kind of warm up is usually when a Pineapple express rolls in with lots of precipitation. Not today...only sun. I have noticed though that the central valley has also like you Tom,had plenty of 32-34f nights. That's not too unusual in a regular winter..but the nights aren't keeping up with the days this mild winter.

THEN,you soucal that is not even having winter..I'm sure plenty of semi tropicals are still in flush and tropical bloomers are doing what they did in July.
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Re: Cold?

Post Number:#34  Postby Spination » Tue Dec 19, 2017 9:50 am

The 7 day string of between 30 and 32 lows overnight were followed by a 50 and 48, then 2 AMs @ 34F. What I'm worried about are the 4 days starting Wednesday, when the forecast is 33, 31, 34, 35. That would be nice if that's what it will be (or higher! - really wishful thinking), but the problem is each forecast for lows this season were about 5 degrees on average above what it really was. Last couple of nights called for 38, we got 34. Those freezing nights were the same deal, excepting one of those AMs when they did call for freeze/frost warnings the night before. The low forecasts have been so consistently off the wrong way, now if they say 31, I'll be expecting something more like 26. Really not looking forward to that... I hope they're right for a change.

So far, the rough cold of winter last season has already been smashed by what's going on right here so far. Last year's freeze overnights only started 12/16-17 with a 30, 26, 28, 30. by 12/16 this season, we've already had at least 10 @ 32 or lower. I didn't record the first few, because I thought they were aberrations (and because they came so early), and that perception also influenced by the fact they weren't forecast. Last year, and years past, I was able to count on forecasts that consistently turned out right on, or a degree off. From what I've seen so far, that seems to be a thing of the past.

On the plus side, what's happened so far is irrelevant in that everything made it through OK. On the minus side, is the implication that if our freezing overnights are already 1/2 the total of all of last season, and now is typically the time when it all starts for real, just what's in store the rest of the way? :eek:
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Re: Cold?

Post Number:#35  Postby Stan » Tue Dec 19, 2017 10:47 am

They have upped the lows by 2f after they had lowered it for a couple of days to 35f for me. Back to 37f is nothing to worry about or cover. Still,we are now in the killing season. Last week of December to the end of the second week of January.
Some website has a new gov. stat- "The coldest days of the year for your climate" Did you know the PNW has its coldest weather in the first week of December?...California in mid December to Jan's first week...and that it gets later as you go to the east that can have its coldest days from January into February.
Also Spine as you and Jay notice..we hit the dip. No more near 70f or balmy 50's at night sneaking in. I can't figure why this time of year is in stone,when summer weather's warmest days sometimes pass without any hot weather.
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Re: Cold?

Post Number:#36  Postby Spination » Tue Dec 19, 2017 12:15 pm

Stan, it's pretty simple.
The sun heats the earth. The amount of minutes the sun is shining on our respective pieces of earth are the predominant determinant of warming potential. I had spent some time a number of years back studying how this changed over the course of the seasons, and as I recall, it's roughly 2 minutes a day here (1 minute in the AM, 1 minute in the PM) that this time period changes, either adding or subtracting between the 2 endpoints - summer solstice and winter solstice. The exception is the 3 days surrounding each solstice when there is a hiatus, so to speak. On the equator, you get 12 hours of day, 12 hours of night...all year long. This far north, we are looking at a difference of approx 4 hours between the longest day to the shortest day. Those 2 minutes a day really add up! In the summer - simplified; clouds, etc can mitigate how much the sun actually heats the earth. In the winter, you only have X amount of minutes of sunshine available to warm things up. Also, the angle of the sun in the sky and distance from our piece of earth means that those rays have to travel further and through more atmosphere to have effect. So, in the winter, aside from the minutes of sunshine, the sun we get just isn't very effective anyway.
So, yeah... as your put it, that's why this time of year is "in stone". The only way for it to change is to experience a change in tilt of the earth's axis. Let's not hope for much of that, which would spell absolute chaos for the planet.
Ironically, in the summer, it would be clouds keeping us cooler. In the winter, a clear sky during the day, and an overcast night would be optimal for keeping it warmer, as the cloud cover at night traps the warmth. The difference between a cloudy night and crystal clear is huge in terms of the low. All of those freeze nights we've already had so far were accompanied by clear skies. I know, because I was out there @ 2AM on each, lighting a bonfire in the hopes that some of that heat would make just that tiny bit of difference between plants making it through or not damage-wise. The bigger deal though, is trying to reap some benefit of the smudge pot effect. Smudge pots have been the go-to prevention/mitigation of crop damage (orchards mostly) for over 100 years. For what I can't cover up, that's pretty much all I've got in my bag of tricks to help me out. I've tried "Cloud Cover" in past years, but going out there spraying everything with it is somewhat ridiculous. Not just that, what happens after a rain? Washes off, then you have to spray again the next upcoming freeze night? Nah, no thanks.
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Re: Cold?

Post Number:#37  Postby Stan » Tue Dec 19, 2017 4:30 pm

Actually,not quite accurate- as continental conditions- as I mentioned before put a delayed effect on ultimate cold. For us in the bay area it works out to the shortest days of the year- for Seattle its early December, and for the Gulf and Florida or the Northeast,it can be Jan well into February.
Here,I should have done this to start with,the link
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/news/when-to- ... ay-of-year
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Re: Cold?

Post Number:#38  Postby Spination » Wed Dec 20, 2017 10:26 am

Stan, I was speaking to the main general reason why this time of year is coldest - really not about regional differences going east across the country.

Anyway, not nice the bit of rain overnight, then the fleeing of all cloud cover to usher in a chill that dropped the temp nearly 10 degrees in mere hours. I can feel from the cold chill in the air right now we are going to be in for a plant-unfriendly cold few days, at least. I see the forecast for the following days has already been modified downwards. Thursday is now showing 29, and I really hope they're not off again as has been typical of late. If the pattern of underestimating the actual low holds up, mid 20 will be more like it.

The annoying thing was the bit of rain, just enough to wet everything before we get freeze coming right up...
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Re: Cold?

Post Number:#39  Postby Stan » Wed Dec 20, 2017 10:59 am

Modesto has had 7 days of 32 or colder and four more of 33f. So,the cold is circling the bay area..closing in on us and me. Right now,hanging on to 37 has our single coldest morn. I do see on Dec 31st a call for 34f. I hope not..but its hard to get out of December without one frost. I think we've only had 3 frost free Decembers since 2000. That last FF December was years ago. Mid 1990's (sandwiched between 1990 and 1998s cold) and early 2000's were a good run.
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Re: Cold?

Post Number:#40  Postby Spination » Wed Dec 20, 2017 11:18 am

On schedule, I haven't seen this flower for several years. Every time it gets this far, the freeze turns the inflorescence to mush. I'm going to try cover the flower structure with plastic, then cover with cloth, and then stretch a big plastic garbage bag over that, and cover again with more cloth - each night. I would really love to see this one actually complete the flowering process once again! The burned leaf tips on the older leaves were from last year's brutal freeze nights...
2017 12 20 Aloe arborescens .jpg
2017 12 20 Aloe arborescens .jpg (91.66 KiB) Viewed 128 times


It's too big for me to move inside, and there's no room inside anyway...
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Re: Cold?

Post Number:#41  Postby Stan » Wed Dec 20, 2017 1:52 pm

Mine had those spots from rot and our record wet winter. As I recall,they started in November..lots of cool rains and not even cold yet.
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Re: Cold?

Post Number:#42  Postby Spination » Wed Dec 20, 2017 2:14 pm

This plant was protected from the rain covered with plastic. All that damage was from the cold. I had other plants (mostly agave) that did get pretty soaked, and I did have issues with aracnose on those (brown/black spots).
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Re: Cold?

Post Number:#43  Postby Stan » Wed Dec 20, 2017 3:43 pm

I see SF will see only 47f and by the Embarcadero only 49f for coldest night of the year. I hate San Francisco ::x To have L.A. lows so close to me D)) . They' ve lowered my low to 34f now. So some things to be covered tonight. Or moved if in pots.
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Re: Cold?

Post Number:#44  Postby Spination » Wed Dec 20, 2017 3:53 pm

The forecasts have been nearly worthless. If they say 38 - I know 32 is very possible (yeah - that's been happening!). All I know is there's a cold wind out there, and that smells like trouble tonight - and tomorrow is supposed to be colder.
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Re: Cold?

Post Number:#45  Postby Stan » Wed Dec 20, 2017 4:07 pm

Tom,here's a neat link. Not sure if I posted this before.
https://digital.weather.gov/?zoom=7&lat ... mxmz=false
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Re: Cold?

Post Number:#46  Postby Spination » Wed Dec 20, 2017 4:51 pm

I don't know what happened to weatherdotcom. They're crap now. Used to be right on the money. Tonight's low according to them right this minute - 36F - which I know is wrong. I can feel the air outside right now and I know using my own good old fashioned horse sense it's going to be colder than that. Your link - low tonight - 28F. NOW, that I believe... So there you go, a difference of 8 degrees if one was trying to rely on that garbage info.

Thanks for the link. Looks like I'll be using that instead here on out.
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Re: Cold?

Post Number:#47  Postby Gee.S » Wed Dec 20, 2017 4:54 pm

Agave
"American aloe plant," 1797, from Greek Agaue, proper name in mythology (mother of Pentheus), from agauos "noble," perhaps from agasthai "wonder at".

"Some talk the talk, and others walk the walk, but we stalk the stalk"
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Re: Cold?

Post Number:#48  Postby Stan » Wed Dec 20, 2017 6:27 pm

Using NOA..while I suffer through 34f..up on hilltops in Hayward- Fremont its going to be in the 47f range. I could plant a Mango orchard up there. 10b.
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Re: Cold?

Post Number:#49  Postby Azuleja » Wed Dec 20, 2017 11:25 pm

We had a storm roll through from the north, with a lot of wind and a pittance of rain. We're forecast for the high twenties the next couple of nights and I have quite a few things I'm testing outside. For better or worse.
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Re: Cold?

Post Number:#50  Postby Spination » Thu Dec 21, 2017 9:14 am

Hope those high twenties did no harm - if you got them...

Here? The guv link said the low would be 28 - weatherdot link said 36. So? I was out there @2 AM - and we were at 34. Typically, @ that point, it's going to be colder by 7 AM. I have no idea how much lower we got - because...

I got out there early to see, and I could feel a surprising and pleasing not-so-cold on my face. Pretty stiff breeze/wind blowing. Here's what the thermometer showed:
20171221_073309.jpg
20171221_073309.jpg (55.51 KiB) Viewed 56 times


Wow! Nice! My tent-cities coverings on groups of plants had blown off, but I was quite happy picking up sheets and such off the ground knowing last night's cold was no problem. It got close, but then a reprieve. :U

Yet, on the news this AM, lots of cold all over. Point Arena, on the coast @35 early in the AM, and that's highly unusual for right there @ the ocean.

I think it just goes to show how volatile and unpredictable the prognostication of weather has become. This time, for a change, we came out on the :)) side of it.

EDIT
On this news a few seconds ago - 32 in Santa Rosa? 10 miles away. More than 10 degree difference, but closer to 15. A little wind goes a long way....

EDIT EDIT Really telling is that the old unheated wood/fiberglass windowed greenhouse which remains anywhere from 5-10 degrees warmer than outside was @40 just now, 6 degrees colder than outside. The wind just went away too, but not before it did it's good work. Usually, you close the doors to keep the cold out. Just now, I opened the doors to let the cold out. :lol:
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